GOP May Not Have The Advantage They Hoped For

 The GOP's special failure

All the evidence pointing to monster Republican House gains this fall—the Scott Brown upset win in Massachusetts, the scary polling numbers in once-safely Democratic districts, the ever-rising number of Democratic seats thought to be in jeopardy—was contradicted Tuesday.

In the only House race that really mattered to both parties—the special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania’s 12th District—Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition.

Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy and offers comfort to a Democratic Party that is desperately in search of a glimmer of hope.

The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was even more disliked in the blue-collar, western Pennsylvania-based seat: Just 23 percent viewed her favorably, compared to 63 percent who viewed her unfavorably.

Still, Democrat Mark Critz managed to pull off an eight-point victory, 53 percent to 45 percent, over Republican Tim Burns in a district that John McCain narrowly won in 2008—the only one in the nation that voted for John Kerry in 2004 and McCain four years later.

The race marked the third highly-contested, fair-fight special House election that the GOP has dropped in the last year.

The seat Murtha held for 36 years is precisely the sort of Rust Belt district—economically populist and culturally traditional—that Republicans must win to claim the 40 seats necessary to take back the House.

Yet the way Critz and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee won the contest offered a reminder that the prospect of a GOP majority remains a mirage. And Tuesday’s result has Democrats breathing a sigh of relief, thinking they’ve found a formula to mitigate their losses in what will still be a difficult election season.

The playbook from the Pennsylvania special election isn’t complicated: Make the election a choice between two local candidates and not a national referendum on the Democratic Party or the state of the nation; savage the Republican from the outset and don’t let up; keep the focus on jobs and core economic issues; most important, separate yourself from your national party’s policies and politicians as necessary.

“The lesson will be define the choice very early,” said DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen in an interview. “This is not a referendum on how you feel about the general direction of the country, it’s a choice about how we move forward. And you have to define the differences on key policy issues.”

In the case of Critz, that meant hammering Burns as being in favor of outsourcing jobs overseas and highlighting his willingness to cut Social Security benefits – significant liabilities in an economically-beleaguered and aging congressional district.

Meanwhile, Critz, a longtime Murtha aide, talked up what he had done on behalf of the district and pledged to continue in his former boss’s tradition of bringing home federal dollars to the region.

Just as important, he made plain that he was a Murtha-style Democrat– pro-gun, anti-abortion and unafraid to cross his national party. Critz opposed the healthcare bill and kept his distance from Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi – both of whom Republicans tried to tie him to.

Van Hollen pointed out that, while he may have come out against the healthcare bill, Critz also opposed repealing it.

But the Democratic campaign chief acknowledged that some of his candidates would have to keep clear of Obama this year

“There are some districts where he’s strong and some where he’s less strong,” Van Hollen said, before hastening to add that he still thinks the president is a great national spokesman for the party.

In districts like Critz’s, though, the lesson appeared to be that Democrats would be better off keeping their national leaders away—or perhaps only bringing in select figures who can still appeal to centrists, such as former President Bill Clinton, who appeared in Johnstown on Sunday with Critz and Murtha’s widow.

But if Republicans and their outside allies think they can cruise to victory this fall by simply airing ads linking House Democrats to Obama and Pelosi – as they tried in this contest – they may come up short.

“The Republican strategy of just trying to focus on personalities, whether President Obama or Speaker Pelosi, that’s not a winning strategy,” Van Hollen said.

Republicans made little attempt to sugar-coat the results—except to note that they had fought the contest on the same day as the state’s high-profile Democratic Senate primary.

“Tonight’s result was undoubtedly disappointing, but we will take the lessons learned from this campaign and move forward in preparation for November,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions in a statement.

Sessions also sought to shame Democrats for how they won the Pennsylvania seat, accurately summing up a component of their ungainly, whatever-it-takes survival strategy.

“This hard-fought race gave us an early preview of what Democrats will attempt to do in the fall in order to survive,” he said. “They will steer clear of publicly campaigning with President Obama and Speaker Pelosi, distance themselves from the Democratic agenda, and attempt to co-opt Republican positions on the issues.”

However they’re doing it, though, it’s worked when it mattered. Even as Obama’s fortunes have declined, House Democrats have managed to win a string of nationally-watched special elections.

Last March they narrowly won in a competitive, upstate New York district that had elected both Democrats and Republicans in recent years. Then, in November, Democrats capitalized on a Republican feud and won another upstate New York district—one that had previously been in GOP hands since before the Civil War.

Next comes Saturday’s House special election in Hawaii. In that unusual three-way contest, two Democrats are poised to split the party vote in the heavily Democratic 1st District, which would enable Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou to win with a plurality.

Winning the seat would help deflect attention from Tuesday’s loss. But the unique circumstances of the Hawaii race mean a GOP victory there won’t be nearly as meaningful as it would have been in Pennsylvania.