GOP’s Only House Seat In New England Is in Play
Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, October 21, 2008
By T.W. FARNAM
STAMFORD, Conn. -- Rep. Christopher Shays is the only remaining Republican House member from New England, and a new poll Monday suggests Democrats have a realistic chance of defeating him and gaining complete control of the region this year.
The Connecticut lawmaker is in a dead heat with his Democratic opponent, after having narrowly survived intense challenges the past two cycles. "How can you say you're a Democrat and you're for endangered species, and then go after the last Republican in New England?" Mr. Shays jokes.
Like many congressional races around the country, the House campaign here is dominated by financial turmoil, and the weak economic environment undermining Republicans could ultimately be Mr. Shays's undoing. Even in a district with one of the country's highest blue-blood to blue-collar ratios, the politics of the financial crisis seem to favor Democrats.
A University of Connecticut poll released Monday found Mr. Shays and his opponent, Jim Himes, a former Wall Street executive, drawing 44% support each, with 10% undecided.
Fully 81% favor a "significant increase" in the regulation of investment banks -- and that is in a district where almost one in 10 workers is in finance, employed with one of countless hedge funds, or on the 100,000-square-foot trading floor of UBS AG. Since the market turmoil began, Mr. Himes has been criticizing Mr. Shays for votes to deregulate the industry.
In addition to being a regional anomaly, Mr. Shays is also part of a dying ideological breed: the "moderate Republican." Losses in 2006 elections and a wave of retirements this year have wiped out many centrist members. Mr. Shays is conservative on economic issues and favored the Iraq war. But he is out of step with much of his party by favoring abortion rights and gun control.
Eleven similarly minded centrist Republicans lost or retired in 2006 and another 11 are retiring this year, leaving swing districts open and ripe for capture in what seems to be shaping up as a Democratic year. Many of those remaining, like Mr. Shays, face competitive contests.
On Monday, Mr. Shays released a television ad with an endorsement from one of the country's most prominent centrists, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Democrat who became a Republican and is now an independent.
The race in Connecticut's fourth district, which covers Greenwich and other tony New York suburbs as well as Bridgeport, the state's largest city, parallels the presidential contest. The white-haired Mr. Shays, 63 years old, is close to Sen. John McCain, and the two collaborated on a 2002 campaign-finance law among other legislation. Both have an off-the-cuff speaking style, and Mr. Shays has also cultivated the buck-the-party centrist appeal of Sen. McCain.
Mr. Himes, more than 20 years younger at 42, is a former Goldman Sachs vice president and first-time candidate who has raised more than $2.1 million for his campaign. His fliers show a photo of himself standing with Sen. Barack Obama, the words "vote for change" above them.
Mr. Himes has used the recent financial mess to blast Mr. Shays for saying the economy is "fundamentally strong" and for his plan to supplement Social Security with private accounts. Mr. Shays points to his effort, beginning in 2003, to get mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to file the same financial reports as other public companies.
Mr. Shays won't use his opponent's work at Goldman Sachs to score political points, says Michael Sohn, manager of the Shays campaign. The economic crisis is "not about politics" for Mr. Shays, he says. Mr. Himes cites his Wall Street background as "valuable experience" to assist with the industry-rescue effort.
This district went for John Kerry by six percentage points in 2004 and for Al Gore by 10 in 2000. Mr. Shays won by 17 percentage points in 2000 and four in 2004. If he is going to win again, Mr. Shays will need voters like Cliff Sirlin, 41, of Westport, an energy consultant who plans to split the ticket by voting for Sen. Obama for president and Mr. Shays for Congress. "It's rare to find a fiscally conservative, socially accepting politician," Mr. Sirlin said of Mr. Shays. "He's done a good job." The same UConn poll found Sen. Obama's support 10 percentage points higher than Mr. Himes's, at 54%.
At events around the district on a recent weekend, Mr. Shays often put an arm over a constituent's shoulder, huddling intently. He isn't afraid to give a warm hug, or coo at a baby for several long minutes while someone turns on a camera.
When Mr. Shays arrived at a Greenwich clambake, he made a beeline to the food table to grab a lobster, immediately ripping off the tail, legs and claws before sitting down to eat it -- within about five minutes. After his remarks, which included a reference to spilling lobster on himself, he returned to the back for a piece of watermelon, which he ate standing over a garbage can -- seemingly oblivious to the round of applause when another speaker called him "America's No. 1 congressman."
The day before, Mr. Himes worked the crowd at a Stamford street fair, sporadically introducing himself to voters with a handshake and moving on. While Mr. Shays may be a more natural politician, Mr. Himes is running a well-organized campaign. A former Rhodes Scholar who was born in Peru and spent the first 10 years of his life in South America, he is making a concerted effort to reach Hispanics with his fluent Spanish. They represent about 16% of the district.
