Shays, Himes in dead heat
New Haven Register, Sunday, October 26, 2008
By Ed Stannard, Register Metro Editor
U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays' bid for a 12th term representing the 4th District may depend on the image that sticks with voters.
Is he an independent Republican who works in a bipartisan way to help his constituents in Fairfield County, including Shelton and Oxford?
Or is he, as Democratic challenger Jim Himes contends, marching to the beat set by the Bush administration on the economy, the war in Iraq and energy?
In a race that a recent University of Connecticut poll described as a dead heat, the campaign that is best able to most vividly imprint its image on voters' minds could well be the winner.
"Is Shays really a maverick, or has he supported the war in Iraq, has he supported President Bush on the economy?" said John Orman, professor of political science at Fairfield University. "They're going to have to make up their minds."
The race carries huge significance for the national Democratic Party, which sees Shays as vulnerable. While Shays won in 2004, the district went for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry by 19,000 votes, and Barack Obama is expected to win in Connecticut easily.
A Quinnipiac University poll in July had Obama leading Republican John McCain 52-36 among independent voters, who can make or break either candidate.
"This is certainly a top priority in a race that we consider one of our top pickup opportunities across the country," said Carrie James, regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Shays defeated Diane Farrell in tight races in 2004 and 2006.
The DCCC is spending a lot of money in Himes' behalf, including television ads that portray Shays as out of touch. "We've put in nearly a million (dollars)," James said. "We plan on being competitive through Election Day."
Himes, 42, who works for a nonprofit housing developer, is trying to knock out the only Republican member of the House of Representatives from New England. Shays, 63, maintains that he is able to win re-election because he doesn't hew to the Republican line but acts independently.
"I just go where the truth takes me," he said. "It's a big part of what I do."
Shays, who lives in the Black Rock section of Bridgeport with his wife, Betsi, has an adult daughter, Jeramy. Himes and his wife, Mary, who live in the Cos Cob section of Greenwich, have two daughters, Emma, 8, and Linley, 5.
Shays recognizes that he's a prime target. "I've been in a five-year race that's involved opponents campaigning full time and the (DCCC) spending large amounts of money to discredit me," he said. "The bottom line is that makes me pretty endangered.
"What's endangered is you lose one of the last elected officials who's bipartisan and therefore, I think, pretty effective."
Himes, however, said Shays' bipartisan voting record doesn't hold up to scrutiny. "A lot of votes in Congress simply don't matter that much," Himes said. "On the close votes, Chris Shays votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time." Himes said that is particularly true on three important issues: the economy, the war in Iraq and energy policy.
Shays countered that he voted with Bush only 52 percent of the time and only 67 percent with Republicans on substantive votes.
THE ECONOMY
Both Shays and Himes supported the recent $700 billion bailout of the financial industry; Shays voted for both versions (U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, D-2, was the only Connecticut congressman to vote against them).
"I wasn't going to play Russian roulette with our economy, that's for sure," Shays said. "What we're not going to do is do what Herbert Hoover did" at the beginning of the Great Depression. "We are definitely not going to stand on the sideline. We're not going to let Wall Street bring down Main Street."
TV ads by both Himes and the DCCC have played a recording of Shays maintaining that "our economy is fundamentally strong" to show what they say is Shays' lack of understanding of the financial crisis. Shays insisted, though, that the interpretation is wrong. The financial sector is in trouble, he said, but "the financial sector is pretty arrogant if they think they're the fundamentals."
What he was referring to, Shays said, were the country's industrial base, farming industry, its educated workers and technological leadership, the things that led billionaire Warren Buffett to invest in America.
Shays, according to an 88-page booklet he's distributed that details his record and proposals, favors extending Bush's tax cuts, amending the U.S. Constitution to require a balanced budget and expanding free trade.
Himes, on the other hand, said Shays must take some of the blame for the financial crisis, as a member of the Financial Services Committee. "I said at the time I would have held my nose and voted for both (bailout bills)," he said. "It's obviously appalling that we found ourselves having to implement the bailout. ... Our regulatory and oversight people fell asleep at the switch and Chris Shays was one of them."
Himes, a former vice president of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs, said "the big unaddressed question here is providing relief to distressed homeowners" and he would require lenders to restructure mortgages for those in foreclosure, if they are in trouble through no fault of their own.
Himes also would direct federal dollars to improving bridges and roadways, "public works projects that make sense."
WAR IN IRAQ
Shays has made 21 trips to the Iraq war zone and supported the invasion, but said he would begin withdrawing troops at an even faster pace than Obama would, leaving just a 50,000-troop contingent to train and support Iraqis by the end of 2009.
He doesn't favor increasing forces in Afghanistan because far too many are needed to quell the Taliban and their supporters. "We need about 600,000" troops, both U.S. and Afghani, he said. "The new goal (for Afghan troops) is 200,000. That's one-third of the required amount and what that means is that we'll have to make up the difference."
Shays believes Osama bin Laden is no longer much of a threat. "We can't imagine that his life is very pleasant," he said. "The moment he starts relaxing, he's dead."
Himes contends that Shays' emphasis on timelines is only meant to win re-election.
"I do think we should begin a withdrawal tomorrow. ... I don't think we can afford it anymore," Himes said. He believes the factions in Iraq must be told to "stare into the abyss and make these decisions about the future of your country." He believes Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq will cooperate based on their shared interest in oil revenues.
OTHER ISSUES
Shays would make the health care plan used by federal employees, including members of Congress, available to all Americans. Himes prefers Obama's plan, in which a government-sponsored plan would compete with private insurance.
On energy, Himes believes it's important to emphasize efficiency and alternative energy sources and pointed out that his company developed 3,000 energy-efficient housing units. He sees a cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon use as critical but hasn't taken a strong stand on offshore drilling, because "inasmuch as it's seen as a solution to our energy crisis it's dishonest."
Shays is in favor of "all of the above" to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Even if new drilling doesn't solve the issue, "It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know it's really stupid to say (to other countries), ‘You produce and we'll buy it from you,'" Shays said.
SOCIAL SECURITY
A University of Connecticut poll released Monday showed Shays and Himes in a 44-44 deadlock, and the tightness of the race has increased the heat in their debates and appearances. Himes has been attacking Shays over what he calls his long support for privatizing Social Security, which would have exposed the retirement benefit to the recent stock market plunge.
The Shays campaign chastised Himes for being "so flippant in distorting Chris' record on this; it's just wrong," as spokesman Sean Phillips said.
He said Shays has held forums about the issue and believes "that future generations need to have that same security that current and near-term recipients need to be having."
Campaign manager Michael Sohn said Shays won't vote for privatizing Social Security unless it's a bipartisan plan supported by the 4th District voters, and "right now his constituents do not want it and they will not support it."
A discussion needs to be held, though, Phillips said, and Shays "would start with everything on the table."
As the race draws closer to Nov. 4, both sides will continue to spend money on TV ads and other campaign expenses. According to the Federal Election Commission, Shays has raised $2.86 million on the campaign and had $441,229 in cash on hand as of Sept. 30. Himes had raised $3.1 million and had $1.79 million on hand.
Orman, of Fairfield University, said he thought Himes was impressive in a recent debate. "Like any candidate, he memorized his talking points, but he delivers them well."
On the other hand, Orman said, "In the 4th Congressional District - New Canaan, Darien, a whole lot of Republican suburbs - they're comfortable with Chris Shays. So I don't know what's going to happen."
